過去一個星期實在太累所以無心機寫blog。到下個星期大選期間忙到出煙的情況下﹐真係唔知道點算。好彩有若缺齋老人在蔽blog留言﹐提醒我有需要更新這個blog。謝謝老人﹗﹗
依家紐約個市好似過山車﹐日日上落都閑閑地過百點﹐心臟弱D都唔惦﹗好彩我在舊年年中已經將我的退休金投資內大約七成的組合撥到美國聯邦政府債券基金﹐之後每個月的供款先至買環球股市(美國境外)的投資基金。依家整個退休金組合依然維持大約65%於政府債券基金內。這些基金均由巴克萊銀行屬下的基金公司管理﹐整個美國聯邦政府的僱員退休基金其實都係買巴克萊銀行提供的五種投資基金組合(政府債券基金、私人企業債券基金、標普五百基金、中小企業股基金、以及環球股市基金)。
損失肯定有﹐不過未至於傷到見骨。依家繼續每個月買標普五百基金﹐希望可以撈到底。因為我並非炒家﹐所以就算再大跌﹐因為有債券基金打底﹐應該不會有太大問題掛﹗
Showing posts with label 美國經濟. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 美國經濟. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
油價繼續下跌
原油價格在星期三終於下跌到每桶66.75美元的價位﹐是16個月以來的低位。 在剛過去的週末從華盛頓開了兩個半鐘頭車﹐向南行到達位於維吉尼亞州威廉斯堡市(Williamsburg, VA)內的威廉斯堡殖民地(Colonial Williamsburg)旅行。在途中到油站加油時見到每加侖普通低硫汽油已經低過三美元﹐回程的時候更見到每加侖$2.64。終於可以唔洗俾超過三美元一加侖的貴油﹗
Monday, September 29, 2008
美國國會救市方案“臨門撻Q”
“777”在美國長期以來代表好運﹐但是在9月29日下午﹐這個數字代表著道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average Index)有史以來最大的單日下跌數字﹗認真諷刺﹗﹗﹗
布殊政府以及國會領袖滿以為七千億美元的救市方案可以在星期一過關﹐點知竟然在共和黨眾議員強力反對下“臨門撻Q”﹐很多人對此大跌眼鏡﹗因為救市方案經過整個週末民主共和兩黨領袖以及美國財政部談判後達成協議﹐理應代表著府院之間的妥協方案﹐不會被容易擊破。眾議員內的資歷淺的議員也會跟領袖的決定。有邊個會想到今次竟然會撻Q﹗更無人想到竟然有共和黨議員會同被他們長期視為“英雄”的小布殊對著幹呢﹗
共和黨長期相信自由市場經濟以及小政府不干預政策。今次這套救市方案形同全盤否定共和黨長期奉行的信念﹐試問有幾多人會輕易放棄﹖在美國中部的保守州份地區﹐當地的共和黨眾議員辦公室罕見地收到大量選民的電話﹐要求議員反對這項救市方案。認為這個方案只會是Wall Street(指金融業)同Main Street(指一般普羅階層)作對。今年又係大選年﹐除了總統大選之外﹐435個眾議院議席都要改選換屆﹐以及三份之一參議院議席都要改選﹔如果救市方案失敗﹐有任何冬瓜豆腐的話﹐這批國會議員點樣面對江東父老﹖政治生涯仲肯定玩完﹗﹗﹗
當然﹐美國很多人認為以納稅人的錢為華爾街的不負責任而埋單而感到不滿以及不公平﹐認為政府應該要救消費者以及可能失去房地產的小業主。不過唔救華爾街的話﹐美國的信貸市場(credit market)可能會大受影響﹐使到信譽良好的企業以及消費者不能夠獲得正常的貸款購買房地產或者消費。長此下去將影響整個美國以及全世界經濟。
美國國會眾議院最快將會在星期四復會﹐到時就知道是否有另外一項替代的救市方案進行投票。
救又死﹐唔救仲死﹐你話依家這個境況死唔死呢﹖
布殊政府以及國會領袖滿以為七千億美元的救市方案可以在星期一過關﹐點知竟然在共和黨眾議員強力反對下“臨門撻Q”﹐很多人對此大跌眼鏡﹗因為救市方案經過整個週末民主共和兩黨領袖以及美國財政部談判後達成協議﹐理應代表著府院之間的妥協方案﹐不會被容易擊破。眾議員內的資歷淺的議員也會跟領袖的決定。有邊個會想到今次竟然會撻Q﹗更無人想到竟然有共和黨議員會同被他們長期視為“英雄”的小布殊對著幹呢﹗
共和黨長期相信自由市場經濟以及小政府不干預政策。今次這套救市方案形同全盤否定共和黨長期奉行的信念﹐試問有幾多人會輕易放棄﹖在美國中部的保守州份地區﹐當地的共和黨眾議員辦公室罕見地收到大量選民的電話﹐要求議員反對這項救市方案。認為這個方案只會是Wall Street(指金融業)同Main Street(指一般普羅階層)作對。今年又係大選年﹐除了總統大選之外﹐435個眾議院議席都要改選換屆﹐以及三份之一參議院議席都要改選﹔如果救市方案失敗﹐有任何冬瓜豆腐的話﹐這批國會議員點樣面對江東父老﹖政治生涯仲肯定玩完﹗﹗﹗
當然﹐美國很多人認為以納稅人的錢為華爾街的不負責任而埋單而感到不滿以及不公平﹐認為政府應該要救消費者以及可能失去房地產的小業主。不過唔救華爾街的話﹐美國的信貸市場(credit market)可能會大受影響﹐使到信譽良好的企業以及消費者不能夠獲得正常的貸款購買房地產或者消費。長此下去將影響整個美國以及全世界經濟。
美國國會眾議院最快將會在星期四復會﹐到時就知道是否有另外一項替代的救市方案進行投票。
救又死﹐唔救仲死﹐你話依家這個境況死唔死呢﹖
Friday, September 26, 2008
It's a pay back time!
布殊政府斥資七千億美元的救市計劃受到國會內的共和黨眾議員反對之後，談判變得充滿火藥味。談判在星期四晚間停止，雙方並無達成任何協議。會談計劃在星期五早上恢復。麥凱恩(John McCain)根岸本一早就已經提出反對任何救市建議﹐為了選舉以及穩著保守派的選票﹐他今次索性採取隔岸觀火的態度﹐在 白宮會議上坐埋一邊只講幾句說話就算數﹐明顯唔睇布殊台戲。今次可謂“有仇報仇”﹐以報八年前在黨內初選時被布殊競選團中傷而失去黨內提名。
在星期四傍晚從CNN睇到以下一幕﹕
在白宮內閣會議廳(Cabinet Room)內的記者photo-call結束﹐在場特工“趕”記者離開的時候﹐CNN記者高聲向問布殊“到依家先至做野﹐你是否感到後悔﹖”當時布殊並無回應﹐鏡頭見到在坐的麥凱恩只是乾笑幾聲。當我看到這個情景﹐覺得非常詭異及不寒而慄, 腦內閃起一句說話﹕“It's a pay back time!”
***
正當美國國會仍然就七千億美元救市計劃爭吵不休的時候，美國規模最大的銀行之一--華盛頓互惠銀行 (華互銀行, Washington Mutual) 卻由于無法承受巨大的次級按歇壞帳而宣佈破產﹐並且被美國聯邦儲蓄保險公司(FDIC)在星期四晚接管﹐然後以將近二十億美元的價格轉售給美國投資銀行摩根大通公司。今次美國歷史上破產倒閉規模最大的一家銀行。華互銀行把很多資產投在高風險的次級按歇房地產貸款(sub-prime mortgage)上，但是由於很多貸款者無法償還貸款而使到銀行本身出現負債高達幾十億美元。多個投資評級機構以及FDIC方面早在一年前就已經將華互銀行列為特別留意的觀察對象。所以今次爆煲都無出現任何失控場面。
美國聯邦儲蓄保險公司為存戶的銀行儲蓄賠償上限是十萬美元，但由於轉售交易已經達成，聯邦儲蓄保險公司不必利用本身的資產向華盛頓互惠銀行的存戶支付任何賠償。
在星期四傍晚從CNN睇到以下一幕﹕
在白宮內閣會議廳(Cabinet Room)內的記者photo-call結束﹐在場特工“趕”記者離開的時候﹐CNN記者高聲向問布殊“到依家先至做野﹐你是否感到後悔﹖”當時布殊並無回應﹐鏡頭見到在坐的麥凱恩只是乾笑幾聲。當我看到這個情景﹐覺得非常詭異及不寒而慄, 腦內閃起一句說話﹕“It's a pay back time!”
***
正當美國國會仍然就七千億美元救市計劃爭吵不休的時候，美國規模最大的銀行之一--華盛頓互惠銀行 (華互銀行, Washington Mutual) 卻由于無法承受巨大的次級按歇壞帳而宣佈破產﹐並且被美國聯邦儲蓄保險公司(FDIC)在星期四晚接管﹐然後以將近二十億美元的價格轉售給美國投資銀行摩根大通公司。今次美國歷史上破產倒閉規模最大的一家銀行。華互銀行把很多資產投在高風險的次級按歇房地產貸款(sub-prime mortgage)上，但是由於很多貸款者無法償還貸款而使到銀行本身出現負債高達幾十億美元。多個投資評級機構以及FDIC方面早在一年前就已經將華互銀行列為特別留意的觀察對象。所以今次爆煲都無出現任何失控場面。
美國聯邦儲蓄保險公司為存戶的銀行儲蓄賠償上限是十萬美元，但由於轉售交易已經達成，聯邦儲蓄保險公司不必利用本身的資產向華盛頓互惠銀行的存戶支付任何賠償。
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
布殊﹕“We are in the midst of a serious financial crisis”
剛看完美國總統布殊在白宮就有關七百億美元救市措施的演說。
綜觀他在發表演說時的神情﹐與以往的表情比較可以話非常落漠﹐可能因為他已經係“跛腳鴨政府”﹐今次演說我認為他已經盡力提出理據解釋救市原因。他也用了很多非常嚴重的字眼﹐好似衰退(recession)﹐嚴重金融危機(serious financial crisis)﹐美國將跌入範圍廣泛的金融震蕩(America could slip into a widespread financial panic)等美國總統一向避免使用的字眼。布殊在演說當中也表示﹐今次救市是為了挽救美國經濟以及美國工人職位﹐而並非挽救華爾街投資銀行的高層的個人利益。
當然我也希望這建議中的七百億救市方案可以成功﹐因為今次的金融風暴影響實在太大﹗也希望這七百億用得其所。以下是布殊演說英語全文:
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release September 24, 2008
ADDRESS BY THE PRESIDENT TO THE NATION
State Floor
9:01 P.M. EDT
THE PRESIDENT: Good evening. This is an extraordinary period for America's economy. Over the past few weeks, many Americans have felt anxiety about their finances and their future. I understand their worry and their frustration. We’ve seen triple-digit swings in the stock market. Major financial institutions have teetered on the edge of collapse, and some have failed. As uncertainty has grown, many banks have restricted lending. Credit markets have frozen. And families and businesses have found it harder to borrow money.
We’re in the midst of a serious financial crisis, and the federal government is responding with decisive action. We’ve boosted confidence in money market mutual funds, and acted to prevent major investors from intentionally driving down stocks for their own personal gain.
Most importantly, my administration is working with Congress to address the root cause behind much of the instability in our markets. Financial assets related to home mortgages have lost value during the housing decline. And the banks holding these assets have restricted credit. As a result, our entire economy is in danger. So I’ve proposed that the federal government reduce the risk posed by these troubled assets, and supply urgently-needed money so banks and other financial institutions can avoid collapse and resume lending.
This rescue effort is not aimed at preserving any individual company or industry -- it is aimed at preserving America's overall economy. It will help American consumers and businesses get credit to meet their daily needs and create jobs. And it will help send a signal to markets around the world that America's financial system is back on track.
I know many Americans have questions tonight: How did we reach this point in our economy? How will the solution I’ve proposed work? And what does this mean for your financial future? These are good questions, and they deserve clear answers.
First, how did our economy reach this point?
Well, most economists agree that the problems we are witnessing today developed over a long period of time. For more than a decade, a massive amount of money flowed into the United States from investors abroad, because our country is an attractive and secure place to do business. This large influx of money to U.S. banks and financial institutions -- along with low interest rates -- made it easier for Americans to get credit. These developments allowed more families to borrow money for cars and homes and college tuition -- some for the first time. They allowed more entrepreneurs to get loans to start new businesses and create jobs.
Unfortunately, there were also some serious negative consequences, particularly in the housing market. Easy credit -- combined with the faulty assumption that home values would continue to rise -- led to excesses and bad decisions. Many mortgage lenders approved loans for borrowers without carefully examining their ability to pay. Many borrowers took out loans larger than they could afford, assuming that they could sell or refinance their homes at a higher price later on.
Optimism about housing values also led to a boom in home construction. Eventually the number of new houses exceeded the number of people willing to buy them. And with supply exceeding demand, housing prices fell. And this created a problem: Borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages who had been planning to sell or refinance their homes at a higher price were stuck with homes worth less than expected -- along with mortgage payments they could not afford. As a result, many mortgage holders began to default.
These widespread defaults had effects far beyond the housing market. See, in today's mortgage industry, home loans are often packaged together, and converted into financial products called "mortgage-backed securities." These securities were sold to investors around the world. Many investors assumed these securities were trustworthy, and asked few questions about their actual value. Two of the leading purchasers of mortgage-backed securities were Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because these companies were chartered by Congress, many believed they were guaranteed by the federal government. This allowed them to borrow enormous sums of money, fuel the market for questionable investments, and put our financial system at risk.
The decline in the housing market set off a domino effect across our economy. When home values declined, borrowers defaulted on their mortgages, and investors holding mortgage-backed securities began to incur serious losses. Before long, these securities became so unreliable that they were not being bought or sold. Investment banks such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers found themselves saddled with large amounts of assets they could not sell. They ran out of the money needed to meet their immediate obligations. And they faced imminent collapse. Other banks found themselves in severe financial trouble. These banks began holding on to their money, and lending dried up, and the gears of the American financial system began grinding to a halt.
With the situation becoming more precarious by the day, I faced a choice: To step in with dramatic government action, or to stand back and allow the irresponsible actions of some to undermine the financial security of all.
I’m a strong believer in free enterprise. So my natural instinct is to oppose government intervention. I believe companies that make bad decisions should be allowed to go out of business. Under normal circumstances, I would have followed this course. But these are not normal circumstances. The market is not functioning properly. There’s been a widespread loss of confidence. And major sectors of America's financial system are at risk of shutting down.
The government's top economic experts warn that without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic, and a distressing scenario would unfold:
More banks could fail, including some in your community. The stock market would drop even more, which would reduce the value of your retirement account. The value of your home could plummet. Foreclosures would rise dramatically. And if you own a business or a farm, you would find it harder and more expensive to get credit. More businesses would close their doors, and millions of Americans could lose their jobs. Even if you have good credit history, it would be more difficult for you to get the loans you need to buy a car or send your children to college. And ultimately, our country could experience a long and painful recession.
Fellow citizens: We must not let this happen. I appreciate the work of leaders from both parties in both houses of Congress to address this problem -- and to make improvements to the proposal my administration sent to them. There is a spirit of cooperation between Democrats and Republicans, and between Congress and this administration. In that spirit, I’ve invited Senators McCain and Obama to join congressional leaders of both parties at the White House tomorrow to help speed our discussions toward a bipartisan bill.
I know that an economic rescue package will present a tough vote for many members of Congress. It is difficult to pass a bill that commits so much of the taxpayers' hard-earned money. I also understand the frustration of responsible Americans who pay their mortgages on time, file their tax returns every April 15th, and are reluctant to pay the cost of excesses on Wall Street. But given the situation we are facing, not passing a bill now would cost these Americans much more later.
Many Americans are asking: How would a rescue plan work?
After much discussion, there is now widespread agreement on the principles such a plan would include. It would remove the risk posed by the troubled assets -- including mortgage-backed securities -- now clogging the financial system. This would free banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses. Any rescue plan should also be designed to ensure that taxpayers are protected. It should welcome the participation of financial institutions large and small. It should make certain that failed executives do not receive a windfall from your tax dollars. It should establish a bipartisan board to oversee the plan's implementation. And it should be enacted as soon as possible.
In close consultation with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and SEC Chairman Chris Cox, I announced a plan on Friday. First, the plan is big enough to solve a serious problem. Under our proposal, the federal government would put up to $700 billion taxpayer dollars on the line to purchase troubled assets that are clogging the financial system. In the short term, this will free up banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses. And this will help our economy grow.
Second, as markets have lost confidence in mortgage-backed securities, their prices have dropped sharply. Yet the value of many of these assets will likely be higher than their current price, because the vast majority of Americans will ultimately pay off their mortgages. The government is the one institution with the patience and resources to buy these assets at their current low prices and hold them until markets return to normal. And when that happens, money will flow back to the Treasury as these assets are sold. And we expect that much, if not all, of the tax dollars we invest will be paid back.
A final question is: What does this mean for your economic future?
The primary steps -- purpose of the steps I have outlined tonight is to safeguard the financial security of American workers and families and small businesses. The federal government also continues to enforce laws and regulations protecting your money. The Treasury Department recently offered government insurance for money market mutual funds. And through the FDIC, every savings account, checking account, and certificate of deposit is insured by the federal government for up to $100,000. The FDIC has been in existence for 75 years, and no one has ever lost a penny on an insured deposit -- and this will not change.
Once this crisis is resolved, there will be time to update our financial regulatory structures. Our 21st century global economy remains regulated largely by outdated 20th century laws. Recently, we’ve seen how one company can grow so large that its failure jeopardizes the entire financial system.
Earlier this year, Secretary Paulson proposed a blueprint that would modernize our financial regulations. For example, the Federal Reserve would be authorized to take a closer look at the operations of companies across the financial spectrum and ensure that their practices do not threaten overall financial stability. There are other good ideas, and members of Congress should consider them. As they do, they must ensure that efforts to regulate Wall Street do not end up hampering our economy's ability to grow.
In the long run, Americans have good reason to be confident in our economic strength. Despite corrections in the marketplace and instances of abuse, democratic capitalism is the best system ever devised. It has unleashed the talents and the productivity, and entrepreneurial spirit of our citizens. It has made this country the best place in the world to invest and do business. And it gives our economy the flexibility and resilience to absorb shocks, adjust, and bounce back.
Our economy is facing a moment of great challenge. But we’ve overcome tough challenges before -- and we will overcome this one. I know that Americans sometimes get discouraged by the tone in Washington, and the seemingly endless partisan struggles. Yet history has shown that in times of real trial, elected officials rise to the occasion. And together, we will show the world once again what kind of country America is -- a nation that tackles problems head on, where leaders come together to meet great tests, and where people of every background can work hard, develop their talents, and realize their dreams.
Thank you for listening. May God bless you.
END 9:14 P.M. EDT
綜觀他在發表演說時的神情﹐與以往的表情比較可以話非常落漠﹐可能因為他已經係“跛腳鴨政府”﹐今次演說我認為他已經盡力提出理據解釋救市原因。他也用了很多非常嚴重的字眼﹐好似衰退(recession)﹐嚴重金融危機(serious financial crisis)﹐美國將跌入範圍廣泛的金融震蕩(America could slip into a widespread financial panic)等美國總統一向避免使用的字眼。布殊在演說當中也表示﹐今次救市是為了挽救美國經濟以及美國工人職位﹐而並非挽救華爾街投資銀行的高層的個人利益。
當然我也希望這建議中的七百億救市方案可以成功﹐因為今次的金融風暴影響實在太大﹗也希望這七百億用得其所。以下是布殊演說英語全文:
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release September 24, 2008
ADDRESS BY THE PRESIDENT TO THE NATION
State Floor
9:01 P.M. EDT
THE PRESIDENT: Good evening. This is an extraordinary period for America's economy. Over the past few weeks, many Americans have felt anxiety about their finances and their future. I understand their worry and their frustration. We’ve seen triple-digit swings in the stock market. Major financial institutions have teetered on the edge of collapse, and some have failed. As uncertainty has grown, many banks have restricted lending. Credit markets have frozen. And families and businesses have found it harder to borrow money.
We’re in the midst of a serious financial crisis, and the federal government is responding with decisive action. We’ve boosted confidence in money market mutual funds, and acted to prevent major investors from intentionally driving down stocks for their own personal gain.
Most importantly, my administration is working with Congress to address the root cause behind much of the instability in our markets. Financial assets related to home mortgages have lost value during the housing decline. And the banks holding these assets have restricted credit. As a result, our entire economy is in danger. So I’ve proposed that the federal government reduce the risk posed by these troubled assets, and supply urgently-needed money so banks and other financial institutions can avoid collapse and resume lending.
This rescue effort is not aimed at preserving any individual company or industry -- it is aimed at preserving America's overall economy. It will help American consumers and businesses get credit to meet their daily needs and create jobs. And it will help send a signal to markets around the world that America's financial system is back on track.
I know many Americans have questions tonight: How did we reach this point in our economy? How will the solution I’ve proposed work? And what does this mean for your financial future? These are good questions, and they deserve clear answers.
First, how did our economy reach this point?
Well, most economists agree that the problems we are witnessing today developed over a long period of time. For more than a decade, a massive amount of money flowed into the United States from investors abroad, because our country is an attractive and secure place to do business. This large influx of money to U.S. banks and financial institutions -- along with low interest rates -- made it easier for Americans to get credit. These developments allowed more families to borrow money for cars and homes and college tuition -- some for the first time. They allowed more entrepreneurs to get loans to start new businesses and create jobs.
Unfortunately, there were also some serious negative consequences, particularly in the housing market. Easy credit -- combined with the faulty assumption that home values would continue to rise -- led to excesses and bad decisions. Many mortgage lenders approved loans for borrowers without carefully examining their ability to pay. Many borrowers took out loans larger than they could afford, assuming that they could sell or refinance their homes at a higher price later on.
Optimism about housing values also led to a boom in home construction. Eventually the number of new houses exceeded the number of people willing to buy them. And with supply exceeding demand, housing prices fell. And this created a problem: Borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages who had been planning to sell or refinance their homes at a higher price were stuck with homes worth less than expected -- along with mortgage payments they could not afford. As a result, many mortgage holders began to default.
These widespread defaults had effects far beyond the housing market. See, in today's mortgage industry, home loans are often packaged together, and converted into financial products called "mortgage-backed securities." These securities were sold to investors around the world. Many investors assumed these securities were trustworthy, and asked few questions about their actual value. Two of the leading purchasers of mortgage-backed securities were Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because these companies were chartered by Congress, many believed they were guaranteed by the federal government. This allowed them to borrow enormous sums of money, fuel the market for questionable investments, and put our financial system at risk.
The decline in the housing market set off a domino effect across our economy. When home values declined, borrowers defaulted on their mortgages, and investors holding mortgage-backed securities began to incur serious losses. Before long, these securities became so unreliable that they were not being bought or sold. Investment banks such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers found themselves saddled with large amounts of assets they could not sell. They ran out of the money needed to meet their immediate obligations. And they faced imminent collapse. Other banks found themselves in severe financial trouble. These banks began holding on to their money, and lending dried up, and the gears of the American financial system began grinding to a halt.
With the situation becoming more precarious by the day, I faced a choice: To step in with dramatic government action, or to stand back and allow the irresponsible actions of some to undermine the financial security of all.
I’m a strong believer in free enterprise. So my natural instinct is to oppose government intervention. I believe companies that make bad decisions should be allowed to go out of business. Under normal circumstances, I would have followed this course. But these are not normal circumstances. The market is not functioning properly. There’s been a widespread loss of confidence. And major sectors of America's financial system are at risk of shutting down.
The government's top economic experts warn that without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic, and a distressing scenario would unfold:
More banks could fail, including some in your community. The stock market would drop even more, which would reduce the value of your retirement account. The value of your home could plummet. Foreclosures would rise dramatically. And if you own a business or a farm, you would find it harder and more expensive to get credit. More businesses would close their doors, and millions of Americans could lose their jobs. Even if you have good credit history, it would be more difficult for you to get the loans you need to buy a car or send your children to college. And ultimately, our country could experience a long and painful recession.
Fellow citizens: We must not let this happen. I appreciate the work of leaders from both parties in both houses of Congress to address this problem -- and to make improvements to the proposal my administration sent to them. There is a spirit of cooperation between Democrats and Republicans, and between Congress and this administration. In that spirit, I’ve invited Senators McCain and Obama to join congressional leaders of both parties at the White House tomorrow to help speed our discussions toward a bipartisan bill.
I know that an economic rescue package will present a tough vote for many members of Congress. It is difficult to pass a bill that commits so much of the taxpayers' hard-earned money. I also understand the frustration of responsible Americans who pay their mortgages on time, file their tax returns every April 15th, and are reluctant to pay the cost of excesses on Wall Street. But given the situation we are facing, not passing a bill now would cost these Americans much more later.
Many Americans are asking: How would a rescue plan work?
After much discussion, there is now widespread agreement on the principles such a plan would include. It would remove the risk posed by the troubled assets -- including mortgage-backed securities -- now clogging the financial system. This would free banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses. Any rescue plan should also be designed to ensure that taxpayers are protected. It should welcome the participation of financial institutions large and small. It should make certain that failed executives do not receive a windfall from your tax dollars. It should establish a bipartisan board to oversee the plan's implementation. And it should be enacted as soon as possible.
In close consultation with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and SEC Chairman Chris Cox, I announced a plan on Friday. First, the plan is big enough to solve a serious problem. Under our proposal, the federal government would put up to $700 billion taxpayer dollars on the line to purchase troubled assets that are clogging the financial system. In the short term, this will free up banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses. And this will help our economy grow.
Second, as markets have lost confidence in mortgage-backed securities, their prices have dropped sharply. Yet the value of many of these assets will likely be higher than their current price, because the vast majority of Americans will ultimately pay off their mortgages. The government is the one institution with the patience and resources to buy these assets at their current low prices and hold them until markets return to normal. And when that happens, money will flow back to the Treasury as these assets are sold. And we expect that much, if not all, of the tax dollars we invest will be paid back.
A final question is: What does this mean for your economic future?
The primary steps -- purpose of the steps I have outlined tonight is to safeguard the financial security of American workers and families and small businesses. The federal government also continues to enforce laws and regulations protecting your money. The Treasury Department recently offered government insurance for money market mutual funds. And through the FDIC, every savings account, checking account, and certificate of deposit is insured by the federal government for up to $100,000. The FDIC has been in existence for 75 years, and no one has ever lost a penny on an insured deposit -- and this will not change.
Once this crisis is resolved, there will be time to update our financial regulatory structures. Our 21st century global economy remains regulated largely by outdated 20th century laws. Recently, we’ve seen how one company can grow so large that its failure jeopardizes the entire financial system.
Earlier this year, Secretary Paulson proposed a blueprint that would modernize our financial regulations. For example, the Federal Reserve would be authorized to take a closer look at the operations of companies across the financial spectrum and ensure that their practices do not threaten overall financial stability. There are other good ideas, and members of Congress should consider them. As they do, they must ensure that efforts to regulate Wall Street do not end up hampering our economy's ability to grow.
In the long run, Americans have good reason to be confident in our economic strength. Despite corrections in the marketplace and instances of abuse, democratic capitalism is the best system ever devised. It has unleashed the talents and the productivity, and entrepreneurial spirit of our citizens. It has made this country the best place in the world to invest and do business. And it gives our economy the flexibility and resilience to absorb shocks, adjust, and bounce back.
Our economy is facing a moment of great challenge. But we’ve overcome tough challenges before -- and we will overcome this one. I know that Americans sometimes get discouraged by the tone in Washington, and the seemingly endless partisan struggles. Yet history has shown that in times of real trial, elected officials rise to the occasion. And together, we will show the world once again what kind of country America is -- a nation that tackles problems head on, where leaders come together to meet great tests, and where people of every background can work hard, develop their talents, and realize their dreams.
Thank you for listening. May God bless you.
END 9:14 P.M. EDT
Breaking News:麥凱恩以美國經濟為理由暫停競選活動
麥凱恩在美國時間星期三下午以美國面對金融危機為理由﹐宣佈暫停競選活動﹐並且呼籲奧巴馬同意延期舉行原定在星期五晚舉行的首場候選人辯論。
美國總統布殊在美國東岸時間晚上九點正(香港時間星期四早上九點)將從白宮就目前的金融危機向全國發表電視直播演說。
美國聯邦調查局(FBI)著手調查金融風暴
美國聯邦調查局(FBI)對身處於華爾街金融危機中心的四家美國金融機構展開了調查。據美國在星期二以及星期三的新聞報導說﹐FBI正在調查美國兩大房地產按揭機構房利美(Fannie Mae)和房貸美(Freddie Mac, 名稱又譯作房地美)﹑美國國際集團以及雷曼兄弟證券公司。聯邦調查局懷疑這四家公司可能出現詐騙行為﹐調查將集中在四家機構及他們的高層主管﹐這次是FBI進行範圍廣泛的欺詐調查的其中一部份。FBI目前一共有26宗與美國金融領域瀕于崩潰有關的調查案件。在其中一項調查案中﹐貝爾斯登投資銀行(Bear Stearns)的兩名前經理已經被捕。他們在今年六月被美國司法部以證券欺詐等指控而被捕。
另外﹐被譽為股神的巴菲特(Warren Buffett)同意向華爾街大行高盛證券(Goldman Sachs)注資五十億美元﹐這次終於可以俾佢真正涉足華爾街。因為佢個大寶號Berkshire Hathaway其實之前只係擁有富國銀行(Wells Fargo Bank)一間金融機構而已﹗我對於巴菲特投資落本高盛證券感到高興﹐起碼好過巴菲特投資落一些帳目唔清唔楚的中國企業﹗
另外﹐被譽為股神的巴菲特(Warren Buffett)同意向華爾街大行高盛證券(Goldman Sachs)注資五十億美元﹐這次終於可以俾佢真正涉足華爾街。因為佢個大寶號Berkshire Hathaway其實之前只係擁有富國銀行(Wells Fargo Bank)一間金融機構而已﹗我對於巴菲特投資落本高盛證券感到高興﹐起碼好過巴菲特投資落一些帳目唔清唔楚的中國企業﹗
Saturday, September 20, 2008
美國政府下重藥救市
白宮以及美國國會終於出手。布殊政府向國會提出動用七千億美元救市﹐是自從二十世紀三十年代出現的經濟大蕭條後的罕見措施﹗包括成立機構收購不良資產。有關方案已經提交美國國會﹐可望在星期五(9月26日)國會休會前通過。這一天也是美國在11月4日舉行大選前的最後一天舉行會議。
聽起上來好似實行社會主義﹐不過話分兩頭﹐美國假假地都係全球經濟龍頭﹐無論經過今次事件後美國的地位會否動搖或者拱手送出﹐美國的地位無其他國家可以代替。如果今次事件政府見死不救咪可能仲大鑊﹗到時又會俾其他人話“為富不仁”咪仲衰﹗所以我認為今次政府介入是是非不已之舉﹗
至於今後美國的地位以及局勢何去何從﹐我只有一句說話﹕“爛船都有三分釘”﹗美國不會咁容易清袋離場﹐自由市場不會咁容易就瓜柴﹗因為美國有來自世界各地的人才以及智慧﹐制度可能出現問題﹐不過有完善的改善環境與機製﹐更有自我批評與改善的意識主導﹐這些並非強調國族為主體﹐以及獨裁貪污盛行的國家可以想像得到﹗
聽起上來好似實行社會主義﹐不過話分兩頭﹐美國假假地都係全球經濟龍頭﹐無論經過今次事件後美國的地位會否動搖或者拱手送出﹐美國的地位無其他國家可以代替。如果今次事件政府見死不救咪可能仲大鑊﹗到時又會俾其他人話“為富不仁”咪仲衰﹗所以我認為今次政府介入是是非不已之舉﹗
至於今後美國的地位以及局勢何去何從﹐我只有一句說話﹕“爛船都有三分釘”﹗美國不會咁容易清袋離場﹐自由市場不會咁容易就瓜柴﹗因為美國有來自世界各地的人才以及智慧﹐制度可能出現問題﹐不過有完善的改善環境與機製﹐更有自我批評與改善的意識主導﹐這些並非強調國族為主體﹐以及獨裁貪污盛行的國家可以想像得到﹗
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
聯儲局出手打救AIG
今朝六點幾鐘返到辦公室打開電視機以及電腦﹐頭條新聞就係美國聯邦儲備局決定透過紐約聯邦儲備銀行(The Federal Reserve Bank of New York)打救美國國際集團(American International Group)﹐向AIG提供850億美元的貸款，更罕有地以倫敦銀行同業策息(LIBOR)的利率11.31%來計算﹐並且獲得AIG接近八成的股權﹐一夜之間美國政府成為AIG的大股東。也即是﹕美國以及全球的保險業變相地由美國政府話事﹗
雖然有市場人士認為，美國政府再度出手令眼前一個不明朗因素得到解決，但對經濟表現幫助不大。 不過如果俾AIG破產﹐美國以至全世界都唔惦﹗撇開簡單如個人保險唔講﹐AIG做好多“大刁”﹐包括為銀行業務、石油公司在海上的鑽油臺設施、航空公司的飛機﹐美國人買的彩票(lottery)彩池﹐以及荷李活電影製作承擔風險。如果AIG收皮﹐仲有變間保險公司有份量可以擔保﹖AIG破產將影響各行各業﹐不單只美國﹐更會影響全世界﹐到時就真係會見到全球的經濟衰退。今次聯儲局出手打救﹐只許成功﹐不許失敗。現任聯儲局主席伯南克(Ben S. Bernanke)係研究美國經濟大蕭條的學者﹐希望佢真係“學有所用”, 知道自己應該要做D乜喇﹗
聯儲局聲明全文﹕
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20080916a.htm
Release Date: September 16, 2008
For release at 9:00 p.m. EDT
The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday, with the full support of the Treasury Department, authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to lend up to $85 billion to the American International Group (AIG) under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The secured loan has terms and conditions designed to protect the interests of the U.S. government and taxpayers.
The Board determined that, in current circumstances, a disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth, and materially weaker economic performance.
The purpose of this liquidity facility is to assist AIG in meeting its obligations as they come due. This loan will facilitate a process under which AIG will sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, with the least possible disruption to the overall economy.
The AIG facility has a 24-month term. Interest will accrue on the outstanding balance at a rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points. AIG will be permitted to draw up to $85 billion under the facility.
The interests of taxpayers are protected by key terms of the loan. The loan is collateralized by all the assets of AIG, and of its primary non-regulated subsidiaries. These assets include the stock of substantially all of the regulated subsidiaries. The loan is expected to be repaid from the proceeds of the sale of the firm’s assets. The U.S. government will receive a 79.9 percent equity interest in AIG and has the right to veto the payment of dividends to common and preferred shareholders.
雖然有市場人士認為，美國政府再度出手令眼前一個不明朗因素得到解決，但對經濟表現幫助不大。 不過如果俾AIG破產﹐美國以至全世界都唔惦﹗撇開簡單如個人保險唔講﹐AIG做好多“大刁”﹐包括為銀行業務、石油公司在海上的鑽油臺設施、航空公司的飛機﹐美國人買的彩票(lottery)彩池﹐以及荷李活電影製作承擔風險。如果AIG收皮﹐仲有變間保險公司有份量可以擔保﹖AIG破產將影響各行各業﹐不單只美國﹐更會影響全世界﹐到時就真係會見到全球的經濟衰退。今次聯儲局出手打救﹐只許成功﹐不許失敗。現任聯儲局主席伯南克(Ben S. Bernanke)係研究美國經濟大蕭條的學者﹐希望佢真係“學有所用”, 知道自己應該要做D乜喇﹗
聯儲局聲明全文﹕
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20080916a.htm
Release Date: September 16, 2008
For release at 9:00 p.m. EDT
The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday, with the full support of the Treasury Department, authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to lend up to $85 billion to the American International Group (AIG) under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The secured loan has terms and conditions designed to protect the interests of the U.S. government and taxpayers.
The Board determined that, in current circumstances, a disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth, and materially weaker economic performance.
The purpose of this liquidity facility is to assist AIG in meeting its obligations as they come due. This loan will facilitate a process under which AIG will sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, with the least possible disruption to the overall economy.
The AIG facility has a 24-month term. Interest will accrue on the outstanding balance at a rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points. AIG will be permitted to draw up to $85 billion under the facility.
The interests of taxpayers are protected by key terms of the loan. The loan is collateralized by all the assets of AIG, and of its primary non-regulated subsidiaries. These assets include the stock of substantially all of the regulated subsidiaries. The loan is expected to be repaid from the proceeds of the sale of the firm’s assets. The U.S. government will receive a 79.9 percent equity interest in AIG and has the right to veto the payment of dividends to common and preferred shareholders.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
LATE TUESDAY UPDATE﹕巴克萊宣佈收購部份雷曼兄弟控股
CNN以及CNBC在星期二下午五點半(香港時間星期三清晨五點半)分別報導﹐英國巴克萊銀行集團(Barclays PLC)決定收購部份雷曼兄弟控股(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc)的股權。
希望有關收購可以加快恢復穩定市場﹗
CNN引用美聯社(Associate Press, AP)報導原文﹕
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/16/news/companies/barclays_lehman.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008091617
NEW YORK (AP) -- Barclays PLC will unveil a plan to acquire all or part of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s investment banking and trading operations as early as Tuesday, a person close to the talks said.
The deal could throw a lifeline to more than 9,000 Lehman employees whose future was uncertain after Lehman (LEH, Fortune 500) filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday. Lehman collapsed from massive exposure to risky real estate holdings.
Barclays (BCS) President Robert Diamond has addressed Lehman investment bankers to inform them of his company's intentions, this person said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because a final agreement had yet to be reached.
The third-biggest British bank had withdrawn from weekend talks with Lehman Brothers about a possible outright acquisition. There have been reports that Barclays can pick up the assets it wants for about $2 billion to $3 billion.
The deal must get approval from the bankruptcy court.
A Lehman Brothers request to get initial approval of asset sales from a bankruptcy judge was postponed by one day to a hearing scheduled for Wednesday.
The delay was announced Tuesday, ahead of the company's first hearing in its bankruptcy case. A request to obtain loans to operate while in bankruptcy was also postponed.
A court official did not specify the reason for the delay. The Tuesday agenda had included a motion to start the process of selling certain assets.
The hearing was held at the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York, before Judge James Peck.
Also on Tuesday, the House Oversight and Government Reform committee said it would hold a hearing Sept. 25 to examine the "regulatory mistakes and financial excesses" that led to Lehman's bankruptcy filing. It asked Lehman Chief Executive Richard Fuld to testify before the committee.
希望有關收購可以加快恢復穩定市場﹗
CNN引用美聯社(Associate Press, AP)報導原文﹕
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/16/news/companies/barclays_lehman.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008091617
NEW YORK (AP) -- Barclays PLC will unveil a plan to acquire all or part of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s investment banking and trading operations as early as Tuesday, a person close to the talks said.
The deal could throw a lifeline to more than 9,000 Lehman employees whose future was uncertain after Lehman (LEH, Fortune 500) filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday. Lehman collapsed from massive exposure to risky real estate holdings.
Barclays (BCS) President Robert Diamond has addressed Lehman investment bankers to inform them of his company's intentions, this person said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because a final agreement had yet to be reached.
The third-biggest British bank had withdrawn from weekend talks with Lehman Brothers about a possible outright acquisition. There have been reports that Barclays can pick up the assets it wants for about $2 billion to $3 billion.
The deal must get approval from the bankruptcy court.
A Lehman Brothers request to get initial approval of asset sales from a bankruptcy judge was postponed by one day to a hearing scheduled for Wednesday.
The delay was announced Tuesday, ahead of the company's first hearing in its bankruptcy case. A request to obtain loans to operate while in bankruptcy was also postponed.
A court official did not specify the reason for the delay. The Tuesday agenda had included a motion to start the process of selling certain assets.
The hearing was held at the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York, before Judge James Peck.
Also on Tuesday, the House Oversight and Government Reform committee said it would hold a hearing Sept. 25 to examine the "regulatory mistakes and financial excesses" that led to Lehman's bankruptcy filing. It asked Lehman Chief Executive Richard Fuld to testify before the committee.
美國宣佈利率不變﹐大出市場意料之外
美國聯邦儲備局公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC)在美國東岸時間星期二下午兩點十五分(香港時間星期三凌晨兩點十五分)出乎市場意料之外﹐維持聯邦基金利率兩厘不變。
維持利率兩厘不變後﹐華爾街三大指數全面下跌。道瓊斯指數在十分鐘內就下跌了超過一百點。不過在大半個鐘頭後又止跌回升﹐真係好似坐過山車﹗綜觀聯儲局的聲明﹐不減息的唯一原因就係始終害怕美國的通貨膨脹上升。並且認為近期美國政府推出的救市措施已經足夠﹐不願意在現在這個情況下再加重落藥。
究竟聯儲局這招“以不變應萬變”有無效﹐就真係見仁見智﹗不過除了減息之外﹐聯儲局還可以做乜呢﹖
以下是聯儲局聲明全文:
Release Date: September 16, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.
Strains in financial markets have increased significantly and labor markets have weakened further. Economic growth appears to have slowed recently, partly reflecting a softening of household spending. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.
Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.
The downside risks to growth and the upside risks to inflation are both of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will monitor economic and financial developments carefully and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Ms. Cumming voted as the alternate for Timothy F. Geithner.
2008 Monetary Policy Releases
Monday, September 15, 2008
雷曼兄弟申請破產
成立了158年歷史的美國雷曼兄弟證券公司(Lehman Brothers)在星期一宣佈向法庭申請破產﹐表示集團虧損額高達六千三百一十億美元。可能因為這個虧損額實在太大﹐所以原本想趁低收購的英國巴克萊銀行集團(Barclays Plc)都在星期日收兵。同時﹐美國銀行(Bank of America)宣佈以收購美林證券(Merrill Lynch)大約價值五百億美元的股票。
前聯邦儲備局主席格林斯潘也在美國時間星期日早上接受美國廣播公司(ABC)的時事節目"This Week"的訪問時也唔睇好目前的經濟前景。格林斯潘話“這是50年﹐或者100年不遇的重大事件。毫無疑問﹐事情的發展將比我所見過的任何情況更加嚴重﹐而且問題還遠遠沒有解決。”(This is a once-in-a-half-century, probably once-in-a-century, type of event. There is no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I have seen. And it still is not resolved and it still has a way to go.)
格林斯潘認為﹐政府沒完沒了的救助並非上策。他更認為在房地產市場危機﹐能源價格劇烈動蕩﹐失業率上升的情況下﹐美國和整個世界經濟是否能完全避免一次經濟衰退﹐頗感悲觀。他說﹐避免經濟衰退的機率不到50%。
自己以前讀書時的本科是金融財經﹐也曾經在一家美資銀行工作過﹐我也有一位朋友曾經在雷曼兄弟的日本分公司工作﹐對於公司內部的文化有點兒了解。我個人不願意繼續留在銀行金融業的其中一個原因是認為這行是“三更窮﹐五更富”﹐可以搵得多但係洗錢會洗得仲多﹗雖然對於在美國做金融這行裡面某些文化不敢認同﹐所以不過對於目前美國以至全球出現金融動蕩感到非常不安、感慨與無奈。
ABC 訪問格林斯潘的報導
http://www.abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/story?id=4008041&page=1
前聯邦儲備局主席格林斯潘也在美國時間星期日早上接受美國廣播公司(ABC)的時事節目"This Week"的訪問時也唔睇好目前的經濟前景。格林斯潘話“這是50年﹐或者100年不遇的重大事件。毫無疑問﹐事情的發展將比我所見過的任何情況更加嚴重﹐而且問題還遠遠沒有解決。”(This is a once-in-a-half-century, probably once-in-a-century, type of event. There is no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I have seen. And it still is not resolved and it still has a way to go.)
格林斯潘認為﹐政府沒完沒了的救助並非上策。他更認為在房地產市場危機﹐能源價格劇烈動蕩﹐失業率上升的情況下﹐美國和整個世界經濟是否能完全避免一次經濟衰退﹐頗感悲觀。他說﹐避免經濟衰退的機率不到50%。
自己以前讀書時的本科是金融財經﹐也曾經在一家美資銀行工作過﹐我也有一位朋友曾經在雷曼兄弟的日本分公司工作﹐對於公司內部的文化有點兒了解。我個人不願意繼續留在銀行金融業的其中一個原因是認為這行是“三更窮﹐五更富”﹐可以搵得多但係洗錢會洗得仲多﹗雖然對於在美國做金融這行裡面某些文化不敢認同﹐所以不過對於目前美國以至全球出現金融動蕩感到非常不安、感慨與無奈。
ABC 訪問格林斯潘的報導
http://www.abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/story?id=4008041&page=1
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